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　　Could the bad olddays of economic decline be about to return? Since OPEC agreed to supply-cutsin March, the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $26 a barrel, up fromless than $10 last December. This near-tripling of oil prices calls up scarymemories of the 1973 oil shock, when prices quadrupled, and 1979-1980, whenthey also almost tripled. Both previous shocks resulted in double-digitinflation and global economic decline. So where are the headlines warning ofgloom and doom this time?

　　The oil price was given another push up this week when Iraqsuspended oil exports. Strengthening economic growth, at the same time aswinter grips the northern hemisphere, could push the price higher still in theshort term。

　　Yet there are good reasons to expect the economic consequences nowto be less severe than in the 1970s. In most countries the cost of crude oilnow accounts for a smaller share of the price of petrol than it did in the1970s. In Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price, soeven quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pumpprices than in the past。

　　Rich economies are also less dependent on oil than they were, andso less sensitive to swings in the oil price. Energy conservation, a shift toother fuels and a decline in the importance of heavy, energy-intensiveindustries have reduced oil consumption. Software, consultancy and mobiletelephones use far less oil than steel or car production. For each dollar ofGDP rich economies now use nearly 50% less oil than in1973. The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that, if oil pricesaveraged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, this wouldincrease the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25-0.5% of GDP. Thatis less than one-quarter of the income loss in 1974 or 1980. On the other hand,oil-importing emerging economiesto which heavy industry has shiftedhave become moreenergy-intensive, and so could be more seriously squeezed。

　　One more reason not to lose sleep over the rise in oil prices isthat, unlike the rises in the 1970s, it has not occurred against the backgroundof general commodity-price inflation and global excess demand. A sizableportion of the world is only just emerging from economic decline. TheEconomist s commodity price index is broadly unchanging from a year ago. In1973 commodity prices jumped by 70%， and in 1979 byalmost 30%。

　　31. The main reason for the latest rise of oil price is

　　[A]global inflation.

　　[B]reduction in supply。

　　[C]fast growth in economy.

　　[D]Iraq s suspension of exports。

　　32. It can be inferred from the text that the retail price ofpetrol will go up dramatically if

　　[A]price of crude rises.

　　[B]commodity prices rise。

　　[C]consumption rises.

　　[D]oil taxes rise。

　　33. The estimates in Economic Outlook show that in rich countries

　　[A]heavy industry becomes more energy-intensive。

　　[B]income loss mainly results from fluctuating crude oil prices。

　　[C]manufacturing industry has been seriously squeezed。

　　[D]oil price changes have no significant impact on GDP。

　　34. We can draw a conclusion from the text that

　　[A]oil-price shocks are less shocking now。

　　[B]inflation seems irrelevant to oil-price shocks。

　　[C]energy conservation can keep down the oil prices。

　　[D]the price rise of crude leads to the shrinking of heavy industry。

　　35. From the text we can see that the writer seems

　　[A]optimistic.

　　[B]sensitive.

　　[C]gloomy.

　　[D]scared。

　　名師解析

　　31. The main reason for the latest rise of oil price is 最近的油價(jià)上漲的主要原因是

　　[A]global inflation. 全球通貨膨脹。

　　[B]reduction in supply。供應(yīng)量減少。

　　[C]fast growth in economy. 快速的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。

　　[D]Iraq s suspension of exports. 伊拉克暫時(shí)停止石油出口。

　　【答案】 B

　　【考點(diǎn)】 事實(shí)細(xì)節(jié)題。

　　【分析】 根據(jù)題干可以定位到第一段的第二句話Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March, the price of crude oilhas jumped to almost $26 a barrel, up from less than $10 last December。，說(shuō)明由于石油輸出國(guó)決定降低供給量，使得油價(jià)上升。所以本題的答案是[B]。[D]不是該現(xiàn)象的主要原因，因?yàn)镺PEC的相關(guān)決定才是能夠影響石油價(jià)格的走勢(shì)的主要原因。

　　32. It can be inferred from the text that the retail price ofpetrol will go up dramatically if

　　從文中可以推斷出，如果________，汽油的零售價(jià)格將會(huì)劇烈上升。

　　[A]price of crude rises. 原油價(jià)格上升。

　　[B]commodity prices rise. 日用品價(jià)格上升。

　　[C]consumption rises. 消費(fèi)上升。

　　[D]oil taxes rise. 油稅上升。

　　【答案】 D

　　【考點(diǎn)】 推斷題。

　　【分析】 根據(jù)題干可以定位到第三段的第三句話In Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price，so evenquite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump pricesthan in the past。.意思是說(shuō)在歐洲，稅占汽油的零售價(jià)的五分之四，因此相比以往，原油的價(jià)格變化對(duì)汽油的影響不會(huì)很明顯。也就是說(shuō)稅的增加會(huì)導(dǎo)致汽油價(jià)格的猛漲，而原油價(jià)格的變化帶來(lái)的影響不會(huì)很大。本題一個(gè)理解的難度是muted effect，另外一個(gè)是pump price。mute表示啞巴的，無(wú)聲的，沉默的，和effect連用，表示影響不明顯而pump price是一個(gè)很形象的說(shuō)法，pump指的是泵，這里很形象用pump指代汽油。根據(jù)上述分析，可以得出答案是[D]。

　　33. The estimates in Economic Outlook show that in rich countries

　　《經(jīng)濟(jì)展望》的評(píng)估表明在富國(guó)

　　[A] heavy industry becomes more energy-intensive。

　　重工業(yè)變得更加能源密集型。

　　[B] income loss mainly results from fluctuating crude oil prices。

　　收入損失主要由于波動(dòng)的原油價(jià)格造成。

　　[C] manufacturing industry has been seriously squeezed。

　　制造業(yè)面臨嚴(yán)重影響。

　　[D] oil price changes have no significant impact on GDP。

　　油價(jià)變化對(duì)國(guó)民生產(chǎn)總值沒(méi)有大的影響。

　　【答案】 D

　　【考點(diǎn)】 推斷題。

　　【分析】 根據(jù)本題的關(guān)鍵詞《經(jīng)濟(jì)展望》的估計(jì)可以定位到The OECD estimates in its latest Economic outlook that, if oilprices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, thiswould increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25%-0.5% of GDP。。也就是說(shuō)，油價(jià)的上漲對(duì)GDP 的影響很小，只有0.25%0.5%。因此我們可以得出答案[D]。

　　34. We can draw a conclusion from the text that 從文中我們可以得出的結(jié)論是

　　[A] oil-price shocks are less shocking now. 油價(jià)沖擊已經(jīng)不再那么駭人聽(tīng)聞。

　　[B] inflation seems irrelevant to oil-price shocks. 通貨膨脹看起來(lái)和油價(jià)沖擊無(wú)關(guān)。

　　[C] energy conservation can keep down the oil prices. 能源儲(chǔ)備能夠使油價(jià)下降。

　　[D] the price rise of crude leads to the shrinking of heavyindustry。

　　原油價(jià)格的上升導(dǎo)致重工業(yè)的萎縮。

　　【答案】 A

　　【考點(diǎn)】 文章主旨題。

　　【分析】 本題的幾個(gè)選項(xiàng)需要通篇理解。文章第三段指出油價(jià)的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響不會(huì)那么嚴(yán)重，作者指出其原因是原油價(jià)格占汽油價(jià)格的比例不高，發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家對(duì)石油的依賴減弱，此次漲價(jià)的背景不一樣了。文章最后一段說(shuō)這次油價(jià)上漲與20世紀(jì)70年代的上漲不同，對(duì)各國(guó)的影響也基本沒(méi)有反映出來(lái)，連物價(jià)基本都沒(méi)有變動(dòng)，也就是說(shuō)，油價(jià)沖擊已經(jīng)不是那么可怕。所以答案是[A]。

　　35. From the text we can see that the writer seems 從本文中我們可以看出作者看上去是

　　[A] optimistic. 樂(lè)觀的。 [B] sensitive。敏感的。

　　[C] gloomy. 沮喪的。 [D] scared。恐懼的。

　　【答案】 A

　　【考點(diǎn)】 作者態(tài)度題。

　　【分析】 本文作者主要講的就是這次油價(jià)上漲的影響不大。尤其是第三段和最后一段的第一句話，強(qiáng)調(diào)人們不必?fù)?dān)心此次油價(jià)上漲，因?yàn)檫@一次的情況與20世紀(jì)70年代不同。由此可見(jiàn)作者的態(tài)度是樂(lè)觀的。

　　難句解析：

　　1. Strengthening economic growth, at the same time as winter gripsthe northern hemisphere, could push the price higher still in the short time。

　　【結(jié)構(gòu)分析】本句的主語(yǔ)是Strengthening economic growth，謂語(yǔ)是could push，插入成分是一個(gè)時(shí)間狀語(yǔ)，其中有一個(gè)as引導(dǎo)的定語(yǔ)從句，修飾time。

　　2. The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that, if oilprices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, thiswould increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25-0.5% of GDP。

　　【結(jié)構(gòu)分析】本句的主句是The OECD estimates... that，if引導(dǎo)一個(gè)條件狀語(yǔ)，comparedwith $13 in 1998是過(guò)去分詞短語(yǔ)做比較狀語(yǔ)，主句是this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only0.25-0.5% of GDP，其中的主語(yǔ)this指代的是if條件句。

　　3.One more reason not to lose sleep over the rise in oil prices isthat, unlike the rises in the 1970s, it has not occurred against the backgroundof general commodity-price inflation and global excess demand。

　　【結(jié)構(gòu)分析】本句的主干是One more reason is that.。.。在that引導(dǎo)的表語(yǔ)從句中，它的主語(yǔ)是it，指代的是the rise in oil prices。

　　全文翻譯：

　　過(guò)去經(jīng)濟(jì)衰落的糟糕日子會(huì)不會(huì)重來(lái)?自從石油輸出國(guó)組織在3月同意減少原油供應(yīng)，原油的價(jià)格已經(jīng)從去年12月的不到10美元一桶上升到約26美元一桶。這次近3倍的漲價(jià)令人想起了1973年的恐慌，當(dāng)時(shí)油價(jià)上漲了4倍;以及1979―1980年的那一次，當(dāng)時(shí)的油價(jià)也上漲了近3倍。前兩次的石油恐慌都導(dǎo)致了兩位數(shù)的通貨膨脹和全球性的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。那么這次警告人們厄運(yùn)來(lái)臨的頭版新聞都到哪里去了呢?

　　本周伊拉克暫停石油出口，這又一次推動(dòng)著油價(jià)上揚(yáng)。強(qiáng)勁的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭，加上北半球冬季的到來(lái)，有可能在短期內(nèi)使石油價(jià)格漲得更高。

　　然而，我們有充分的理由預(yù)期這次油價(jià)暴漲帶來(lái)的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響不會(huì)像70年代那么嚴(yán)重�，F(xiàn)在多數(shù)國(guó)家的原油價(jià)格占汽油價(jià)格的份額比70年代要小很多。在歐洲，稅占了汽油零售價(jià)的4/5，因此，即使原油價(jià)格發(fā)生很大的波動(dòng)，汽油價(jià)格所受的影響也不會(huì)像過(guò)去那么顯著。

　　發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家對(duì)石油的依賴也比從前要少得多，因此對(duì)油價(jià)的波動(dòng)也就不會(huì)那么敏感。能源儲(chǔ)備、燃料替代以及能源密集型重工業(yè)的重要性的降低，都減少了石油消耗。軟件、咨詢及移動(dòng)通訊消耗的石油，比鋼鐵、汽車行業(yè)少得多。發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家國(guó)民生產(chǎn)總值中每一個(gè)美元所消耗的石油量比1973年少了近一半。國(guó)際經(jīng)合組織在其最近一期的《經(jīng)濟(jì)展望》中估計(jì)，如果全年油價(jià)均價(jià)22美元左右，與1998年的13美元一桶相比，這僅僅會(huì)使發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的石油進(jìn)口在支出上增加GDP的0.25%―0.5%。這還不到1974年或1980年收入損失部分的1/4。另一方面，由于重工業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移至一些新興石油進(jìn)口國(guó)，它們對(duì)能源可能更加敏感，也更可能會(huì)受到強(qiáng)烈影響。

　　另外一個(gè)不應(yīng)因油價(jià)上升而失眠的原因是，與70年代的上漲不同，這次油價(jià)上升的大背景不是普遍的物價(jià)暴漲及全球過(guò)旺的需求。世界上很多地區(qū)才剛剛走出經(jīng)濟(jì)衰落。《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家》的商品價(jià)格指數(shù)一年來(lái)總的來(lái)說(shuō)沒(méi)有什么變化。1973年的商品價(jià)格躍升了70%，而1979年也上升了近30%。

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