THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THUNDERSTORM FREQUENCY VARIATION AND THEIR POSSIBLE RELATION WITH THE ADJUSTMENT OF CROP DISTRIBU

In order to research possible influences of the adjustment of plant distribution on the development frequency of thunderstorms over the Leizhou Peninsula,mathematic statistic methods, including correlation analyses,11 kinds of fitting models and all-variable regression methods,were used for analyses and research. The results show that the average trend of the number of annual thunderstorm days is descending obviously,and there are thunderstorms in all seasons,in which warm post-midday thunderstorms have taken up the most part,and high frequency is found from May to September,and the starting and ending dates of thunderstorms have a great annual discrepancy. The vegetation structure has been improved along with the reduction of rice fields and the area increment of sugarcane and fruits planting,which results in the decrease of the number of thunderstorm days; the change in the characteristics of winter spare fields,which is caused by the planting of vegetables,limits the formation of thunderstorms in early winter and late spring. Meanwhile,the area adjustment of peanut planting has little influence on the variation of thunderstorm days. The adjustment of principal crop distribution,such as rice, sugarcane,fruits and vegetables,may have obvious influence on the formation of thunderstorms,and sugarcane has the largest effect,followed in turn by rice,vegetables and fruits,and the adjustment of crop distribution has little influence on the starting and ending dates of thunderstorms.

作 者： ZHANG Yu NIU Sheng-jie   作者單位： ZHANG Yu(Key Laboratory for Atmospheric Physics and Environment. Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,Nanjing 210044 China;Zhanjiang Bureau of Meteorology,Zhanjiang,Guangdong Province,524001 China)

NIU Sheng-jie(Key Laboratory for Atmospheric Physics and Environment. Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,Nanjing 210044 China) 

刊 名： 熱帶氣象學報(英文版)  英文刊名： JOURNAL OF TROPICAL METEOROLOGY  年，卷(期)： 2009 15(1)  分類號： P446  關鍵詞： atmospheric physics   thunderstorm frequency variation   mathematic statistic methods   adjustment of crop distribution